Pentagon Plans

[xoxoxoBruce]

The Pentagon is planning for possible climate change. They are talking as soon as 2010 for the start.

"Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse. A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands, making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable. In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached, disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south.

Megadroughts afflict the U.S., especially in the southern states, along with winds that are 15% stronger on average than they are now, causing widespread dust storms and soil loss. The U.S. is better positioned to cope than most nations, however, thanks to its diverse growing climates, wealth, technology, and abundant resources. That has a downside, though: It magnifies the haves-vs.-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America.

Turning inward, the U.S. effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources. Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico, South America, and the Caribbean islands—waves of boat people pose especially grim problems. Tension between the U.S. and Mexico rises as the U.S. reneges on a 1944 treaty that guarantees water flow from the Colorado River into Mexico. America is forced to meet its rising energy demand with options that are costly both economically and politically, including nuclear power and onerous Middle Eastern contracts. Yet it survives without catastrophic losses.

Europe, hardest hit by its temperature drop, struggles to deal with immigrants from Scandinavia seeking warmer climes to the south. Southern Europe is beleaguered by refugees from hard-hit countries in Africa and elsewhere. But Western Europe's wealth helps buffer it from catastrophe.

Australia's size and resources help it cope, as does its location—the conveyor shutdown mainly affects the Northern Hemisphere. Japan has fewer resources but is able to draw on its social cohesion to cope—its government is able to induce population-wide behavior changes to conserve resources.

China's huge population and food demand make it particularly vulnerable. It is hit by increasingly unpredictable monsoon rains, which cause devastating floods in drought-denuded areas. Other parts of Asia and East Africa are similarly stressed. Much of Bangladesh becomes nearly uninhabitable because of a rising sea level, which contaminates inland water supplies. Countries whose diversity already produces conflict, such as India and Indonesia, are hard-pressed to maintain internal order while coping with the unfolding changes."

Of course at that time we will have lost all our manufacturing ability (thanks Wal-Mart) and be reliant on "the enemy" for all out goods. Better brush up on your survival skills.

[lumberjim]

that's deep. Did you ever get the feeling that something like that is inevitable. followed by the urge to dig a sub-basement and fill it with guns and food? For some reason, post-apocalyptic stories have always fascinated me. Perhaps in an unconcious escapism type of way. If society as we know it came crashing down, what would I do? how would I protect my family? could I live off of the land? or at least, the abandoned twinkie factory. I read a book called "lucifer's hammer" that was set in post-meteor strike america. i can see that happening. a slow change to that kind of thing caused by weather, as in the attached article might be harder to deal with.


scary, but somehow exciting.

[tikat]

One of my roommates has a zombie fascination. He also has the great book "The Zombie Survival Guide".

I can't stock up my basement, though, as my town was basically built in a swamp. It would be impossible to keep a basement from flooding.

The report didn't specifically mention the fate of New Zealand, but it did mention Australia being basically all right. Maybe I should accellerate my Island Paradise plans.

I don't suppose anyone has a link to the publisher of an "American Mail-Order Grooms for Kiwis" catalog?

[Archer]

Explore ways to offset abrupt cooling—today it appears easier to warm than to cool the climate via human activities, so there may be "geo-engineering" options available to prevent a catastrophic temperature drop.

That really really scares me. We can't predict the weather much more than a week or two out (reliably), so we have no idea what "geo-engineering" might do.

This is a bunch of what ifs, but there is some decent science behind it.

[Elspode]

Originally posted by lumberjim
I read a book called "lucifer's hammer" that was set in post-meteor strike america.

Great book...here's a picture of me with one of the authors... Okay, a really bad picture, but the top right pic in the foursome of photos is me with Larry Niven, who wrote Lucifer's Hammer along with Jerry Pournelle.

[Happy Monkey]

If I don't have all of Niven's books, it's not through lack of effort.

[Beestie]

and let's not forget the potential for a decine in the strength of the earth's magnetic field to contribute to global warming.

Its strength has dropped 10% over the last 150 years. Most of the drop is at the poles, which, not surprisingly is where the ozone holes are. I always wondered why, if carbon emissions were the cause of the ozone holes, why the holes weren't over industrial cities instead of Antarctica.

The magnetic field decline appears to be the answer. And it could also be a contributor to the doomsday scenario above.

Here's a little blurb about the magnetic field and its recent decline.

[Torrere]

Originally posted by Happy Monkey
If I don't have all of Niven's books, it's not through lack of effort.

I don't have: All the Myriad Ways, Achille's Choice (?), Dream Park, or either of the Ananzi books. There are one or two other books that I don't have.

I wish more people had read "The Fourth Profession", because I've tried to make references to it several times.

[Torrere]

Hehe. I've did a lot of this fun predict-how-politics-changes stuff when I was a kid with an atlas.

I think that the prognosis they've given is a bit dark. I think that modern technology will give entrepreneurs plenty of opportunities, and I believe that it could change human society for the better.

I think that the paragraph about raiding for resources is the most important. Contrary to what they've said, I do not believe that we've stopped fighting wars for resources, but those struggles will become much more common and baser.

Anyone want to start up a bulk water transportation business on the East Coast?

[Rokko]

Reminiscent of warnings of the Y2K bug, anyone?

IMO it sounds like a crock of bull. If anything, changes will be a fraction of what that statement fortells.

[Torrere]

Yes.

My immediate reaction was "BS!", until I remembered the Little Ice Age.

I think that you're right, Rokko, that the changes will be much less than the article foretells. The "US builds a fortress around itself" idea sounds like BS -- but then, I suppose it really does depend upon how dramatically the climate changes.

[wolf]

The Pentagon is just making preparations for when they screw up the weather.

[Kitsune]

Originally posted by wolf
The Pentagon is just making preparations for when they screw up the weather.

HAARP is creepy -- no matter where you are you can tune up and down the band and hear them on some harmonic which is a good indication that they are pumping out some serious power. I think I used to hear them all the time ~7-8MHz. Loud, increasing, "rushing" tones -- sounds like a bad video game.


73 DE KE4DYX

[FileNotFound]

HAARP would be much creepier if it was built in North Korea of China...

[Troubleshooter]

Here's an interesting article relating to scientific predictions about the future and how wrong that can be and how wrong the consistently are.

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http://www.reason.com/rb/rb020404.shtml

Ronald Bailey


I am testifying at an oversight hearing before the House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources on "The Impact of Science on Public Policy" today, Feb. 4, 2004. I was asked to submit testimony about how and why environmental predictions have gone wrong. What follows is the written version of my testimony. (I get a whole five minutes to speak.)

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Enjoy