Election result in Australia

[bluesdave]

Last weekend we Aussies went to the polling booths to vote for our national government. Most of the pre-election opinion polls had the race being almost a dead heat, with a slight edge being given to the sitting Liberal government. The election campaign was fought mainly along economic lines, with some debate on hospitals, education, the environment and "homeland security". Interestingly, our involvement in the Iraq war did not surface very often, and I think that most voters, regardless of their political leanings, tended to ignore Iraq.

The result was that the Howard government was returned for a fourth term, and John Howard has set a new record for a Prime Minister - ie. winning four consecutive terms. Not only that, but the Liberals (Howard's party), have actually increased their vote, and looks like they might have a majority in the senate (our upper house).

I heard that after the third Kerry/Bush debate the contest is considered to be neck and neck. Apparently Kerry is trying to focus on economic issues while Bush is sticking to "homeland security". There was a documentary shown here this week about the presidential campaign - they focused on Ohio because of its perceived importance in this campaign - and it was amazing how many people who were interviewed, still actually believe that Saddam was actively involved in 9/11, and that he had WMDs stockpiled. The journalist talked to people who currently work, or previously worked in the steel industry, and have lost, or are going to lose their jobs because of Republican policies (going back to Reagan), and they *still* want to vote for Bush.

I also heard this week that Tony Blair is still considered to be (by Brits), the best political leader, even though he has copped a fair amount of flack over Iraq, and his party is "on the nose".

Where is all this leading, you might ask? I am wondering if maybe Bush will win in a more convincing manner than many people have been predicting. Is it possible that he too, like John Howard, might actually increase his vote? It seems to me that Bush has a great deal more grass roots support than some of the political pundits would have us believe.

[tw]

Originally Posted by bluesdave

I am wondering if maybe Bush will win in a more convincing manner than many people have been predicting. Is it possible that he too, like John Howard, might actually increase his vote? It seems to me that Bush has a great deal more grass roots support than some of the political pundits would have us believe.

George Jr learned early on (a Frontline report on the PBS network says it was in the Iowa cacuses for his father) that immense support is obtained from the religious right. Unlike most others, the right wing religious vote as a block AND (more important) they actually vote. For example, heavy rains in some states may cause a Kerry loss in that state. (Also remember, presidents are elected by states and not by the total national voter count. There is good reason for this.).

Facts have little effect on those driven by emotion. Religion is a deep rooted emotion among the right wing. They are told what to do and do it in mass. For same reasons, right wing religious people are often most easily taken in scams. They tend to be that trusting.

You ask if George Jr is more convincing. Facts say he has been lying or intentionally misleading all along. He implies Saddam attacked the WTC and Pentagon - an outright lie - and 60% of Americans believed it. A glaring example of how people make decisions.

In fact, I had no use for the debates. No facts to be learned there. Debates are about emotional perceptions because that emotion is what most people use instead of fact. Irrelevant to George's constituents is that he lied or intentionally decieved about 9/11, WMDs, basic science such as stem cells, a man to Mars boondoogle, or that the 'new' Europe supports him. It does not matter. George has supporters that regard him as one of their own and will vote for him in mass even if the 18th hurricane or a large and overdue Missouri earthquake makes voting all but impossible.

This might be a rare election. The mainstream centrists and the liberal voters may turn out like no one has seen in 40 years. But again, that would not be due to facts. You need only see how contentious discussion has been here to appreciate that the US has been very slowly getting confrontational.

This election could go either way. There are too many new variables. My personal believe is that George Jr will win this only because I don't believe centrists still possess enough conviction to get out and vote. Don't let the opinions posted here decieve you. I believe opinions here of Kerry v. Bush is 50-50 with the George Jr supporters remaining quiet because their opinions are not based in facts. Again, why do people really have opinions? Facts often have little to do with it as demonstrated by posts from Lookout123 - that never provide supporting facts for his conclusion. He has his opinions and his rights to them. But he was made a poster boy mostly to demonstrate this point - many never really have logical reasons for their convictions. They just know. It is how most people decide.

Will the presidential vote effect House and Congressional elections? In the last 30 years, the two have tended to be different because voting was more about facts, political agendas, and political competancy. All local factors that have not been influenced by the presidential issues. Once Congressman could be elected on a "president's coat tails". Recent Congressional election have gone contrary to how the district voted for president. But since emotion may be a larger factor, then it might - only just might - boil over into those Congressional races.

Its rather difficult to say what will happen. Most people who say they might vote one way also tend not to vote. It is why this small minority - the religious right - is so powerful. This time around, most everyone says they will definitely vote this time. Only one said he still would not vote. I am not fully convinced. One thing about the religious. When they say they will do something (ie vote), then they do.

It is said that voter registration is at an all time high. If true, then right wing extremist voters will have diminish voting power. Unfortunately, reports cite a trend but don't provide specific numbers. Therefore I don't put much credibility into what I must assume is only a minor registration increase. Cannot say if this means we will see record turnouts.

Bottom line - this will be a very interesting election. More than one state may have to perform a recount. Furthermore, some electronic voting machines make a recount not possible. How's that for an interesting wild card. Even Supreme Court justices who voted to elect George Jr have also stated they seriously regret having made that vote. Probably because they do not believe sufficient time existed to make a more informed decision. Nobody wants another FL, in part, because public emotion is running higher.

Hope this provides some feel for the temperatures on this North American continent.

BTW, polls in Canada say 4 out of 5 Canadians want George Jr replaced. Compare that to how opinions differ just meters across an open border. They both see the same facts. But emotions are clearly different below the 49th parallel.

[bluesdave]

In that doco I referred to, they showed a room full of people preparing promotional material to mail out to congregations, urging people to vote Republican. It was very much a case of "help God, through his right hand, George W, fight the evil Satan". There were several people interviewed in the doco who expressed basically the same opinion. They really believe that Satan is controlling people like Saddam, and Bin Laden, and that George W is the man to lead us to salvation. Frightening.

[tw]

Originally Posted by bluesdave

There were several people interviewed in the doco who expressed basically the same opinion. They really believe that Satan is controlling people like Saddam, and Bin Laden, and that George W is the man to lead us to salvation. Frightening.

That is not the frightening part. If they believe that, then so be it. It is their right to believe as they wish. The frightening part is when they would impose those beliefs on all others. This is happening under George Jr and encouraged by the current Pope. George Jr is imposing faith based initiatives on the federal government. Even stem cell research is all but stifled in America only because of their religious beliefs - facts have no relevance. The government can even pay for some religious programs. This violates basic principles on which this country is suppose to work - separation of church and state.

Once this nation was big into promoting god into things such as the Pledge of Allegiance (I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America ... one god, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.) God was about distinguishing America from the godless communists. Now the Pope even tells American politicians what laws they must impose upon all other Americans. This has resulted in a backlash against religion. The only way the 10 Commandments should be posted is if same is posted, equally, for every other world religion. Post equivalent from the Koran and watch some of those right wing religious go beserk. It is called a 'double standard'. How dare Islamic principles be imposed on America.

Darwinism is illegal in the state of Iowa. Instead schools were ordered to teach creationism (First Chapter of the Bible). Religion is even being imposed upon its arch enemy - science. Therein lies the problem. Not in how those people make personal decisions. The threat lies when those people would impose their religious beliefs on others. They can do so because, unlike other Americans, they vote - in large percentages - for George Jr.

Hear that folks. They even go next door to make sure every neighbor can get to the polls.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by tw

George Jr is imposing faith based initiatives on the federal government. Even stem cell research is all but stifled in America only because of their religious beliefs - facts have no relevance. The government can even pay for some religious programs. This violates basic principles on which this country is suppose to work - separation of church and state.

You are correct to be wary of subsidizing religion, however, calling a limited subsidy in stem cell research "stifled" is a mischaracterisation. We need to stop corporate subsidies in this country not add more companies to the welfare rolls. You do understand that the reason the religous right is comfortable looking for government handouts is that government subsidizes every damn thing in this country? sorry, spent an evening with hardcore Dems biting my tongue, remembering why neither party should ever have a free hand

[vsp]

The American election, much like the last one, is too close to 50/50 to call accurately. The usual suspects will show up on both sides. This election will hinge on two groups, IMHO:

1) Center-left types and apathetics who are scared shitless about the concept of Evil Brown Muslims coming to America and killing them, and who've bought into the idea that Bush and his War On Terra are doing a good job protecting America from them.

2) Center-right types and apathetics who are fed up with the War in Iraq, the job market, the economy, and/or the Bush administration in general, and who've bought into the idea that Kerry is Not Bush and would therefore be an almost automatic improvement.

National Security Trumps Everything versus Bush Is A Bumbling Idiot. There's the showdown.

[warch]

I was amazed that two of the last debates' questions were about religion and faith. And further amazed that it actually was so important, for some the most important thing they took from the event. Jesus!

Religion doesnt need to be protected from government, government needs to be protected from religion.