What technology will survive the coming collapse of civilization?

[Griff]

When our present civilization hits the skids, how far back are we going to slide? Wolf wants to listen to radio during the shit, can she? What is gonna cause the shit? How many more generations? Any chance humanity will be space-faring by then? What parts of the world are more likely to pick up the pieces more quickly? I want your thoughts on the centralization of energy production/distribution or any weird little ideas that slip through your mind. Me, I'm betting on bison as my hedge against whichever straw breaks the collective back.

[Beestie]

Originally Posted by Griff

...I'm betting on bison ...

The Weber Outdoor Grille.





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[Griff]

[drool]mmmmmm... smokey goodness[/drool]

[russotto]

It's not going to be that kind of collapse. It'll be a slide into tyranny, not a cataclysm. Most _technology_ will survive, though it may become less and less available to those not of the ruling class (and, in fact, in general).

[Undertoad]

The question is moot. You have to tell us what the apocalypse will be driven by.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

The question is moot. You have to tell us what the apocalypse will be driven by.

That's one of my questions. In my experience lefties seem to think it'll be ecological, the result of unrestrained capitalism or a failure to subsidize every paranoid scientist. Righties seem to lean toward government failures/ social upheaval. I figure bison are good for whatever disaster comes. I want to know what shadow flits through your mind when someone says collapse.

[Undertoad]

Human history seems logical in afterthought but a mystery in forethought. Writers of history have a way of describing interwar societies as coursing from postwar to prewar as though people alive at the time knew when that transition occurred. It is a useful exercise to picture yourself... eight to ten years before the crisis/war. What could a person reasonably have foreseen?

- In 1920, American had polarized into competing moral camps, and a mood of alienated pleasure-seeking was settling in. Could people have envisioned the economy crashing down on the heads of a shortsighted, risk-taking public? Possibly. What about global depression, political upheaval, and another world war worse than the last? No.

- In 1850, a new north-south compromise had just been worked out and the Republican party did not exist. Could people have envisioned an incipient abolitionist party seizing the White House? Possibly. What about a horrifying national hemmorhage, a Civil War bloodier than any known war in the history of mankind? No.

- In 1764, England still pampered its New World colonies and forebore from making their inhabitants pay the full cost of their wars and governance. Could people have envisioned heavy new taxes and an armed crushing of popular resistance? Possibly. What about a war for independence, the coalescence of thirteen quarreling colonies into one new nation, and the creation of a constitutional republic? No.

Strauss/Howe, The Fourth Turning

[russotto]

You couldn't predict WWII in 1920 because one major factor hadn't really appeared on the scene yet -- Adolf Hitler.

I think the Civil War and the _attempt_ at an American Revolution could have been predicted. The presence of troops to crush such a revolt is pretty good evidence that it WAS predicted. The idea that it would succeed is another matter.

wolf: I don't think fulminate of mercury (and thus percussion caps and primers) are out of reach for a backyard chemist. Even smokeles powder isn't (nitric and sulfuric acids were known to the ancients, I believe -- certainly in medieval times. And the sulfuric isn't strictly necessary), though of course black powder is easier and safer to make.

[Troubleshooter]

The Improvised Munitions Manual and the books by people like Kurt Saxon all show how easy it can be to manufacture a lot of the basic necessities.

[lookout123]

ah, John Titor pops up inthe cellar again. i think the fact that the Titor phenomenon is still talked about is pretty cool, whether or not it is true.

[Undertoad]

All that is to say, it's S/H's take that it's not the initial events that make the crisis period, it's humanity's *reaction* to them. 9/11 (a possible "precursor" event) was magnified because of the reaction. The destruction of the buildings was peanuts compared to the national shock. Thousands died yes, but HUNDREDS of thousands were driven out of work and several sectors almost driven out of business. (What's unavailable after the crisis? Air travel as we know it.)

It's just like personal life - each thing that happens to you can be a catalyst to change, but it's your reaction to them which really determines their role in your life. You could lose an arm and see that as the event that caused you to focus and re-evaluate your life, improving it markedly. Or you could see it as the worst thing that ever happened to you, a true tragedy which begins your slow decline.

The national mood and character is driven into a slow breakdown of the previous orders until a crisis period arrives to reset the national priorities... or to break the order completely and set the stage for a new order. Don't you FEEL unraveled right now? Even though you have plenty does it not seem like a small slip could break the insurance system, the medical system, various pieces of government, etc? This was not the national mood in the postwar era when national unity informed us that we could do *anything* we set our heads to, including putting a man on the moon.

Just ASKING the question about the coming collapse of civilization tells you where we are. Uncertain, worried, tired from stress. Old systems seeming broken and not replaced correctly. Government not protecting anybody although it claims to do so. The question you ask, Sir Griff, is not what great things we will accomplish in the next decade, but what things will wind up inevitably collapsing to the point where they don't exist any longer. This informs us that S/H are correct and that the crisis looms over us.

[glatt]

If it's a serious collapse, like in the dark ages after the Roman Empire, I think civilization will never recover to the point we are at now.

The industrial revolution started by using all the resources that were easy to mine. We now rely on advanced technology to mine the materials we use today. The future "cavemen" won't have that technology. They won't stumble on oil while digging a well in Pennsylvania. They won't discover iron ore in the hillsides. All they will find are these old rusted bits of metal lying around in the crumbling cities. That will last for several generations, but that's it. Then the raw materials will be gone. They won't even have whales for lamp oil, because they were over-hunted.

I feel sorry for the future genius cavemen that are trying to rebuild civilization. They will have to do it without the raw materials we had. It will be impossible.

[lookout123]

you know, after reading this, i feel like taking the rest of the day off work and restarting Stephen King's The Dark Tower series. or possibly some of Eric Von Lustbader's novels.

[Elspode]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that the wheel will still be a viable technology after the apocalypse. Oh...and the lever/fulcrum.

[lookout123]

does gunpowder and a semi-automatic delivery method count as technology? if so, count me in.