Quote:
Originally Posted by Undertoad
Why do they use RCP 8.5?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wikipedia
The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic (i.e., human) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and aim to represent their atmospheric concentrations. RCP 2.6 assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in CO2-equivalents) peak between 2010–2020, with emissions declining substantially thereafter. Emissions in RCP 4.5 peak around 2040, then decline. In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline. In RCP 8.5, emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.
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Seems like the correct one to use when saying "if we don't reverse the trend..." The critique of 8.5 mentioned on that page is "we'll run out of fossil fuels altogether before we get there." I'm not sure whether that's an optimistic or pessimistic critique, but it's not one that's useful to argue
against weaning ourselves off of fossil fuels.