Afghanistan

[ZenGum]

IMHO Afghanistan cannot be secured unless the Northwest Territory Tribal Area of Pakistan is brought under effective control. As it is the Pakistani government does not and cannot control it, nor will they allow foreign forces to take control there (else they lose their claim to it); thus leaving it as a permanent safe-haven for baddies.

My preferrred option is for Pakistan to cede all areas it cannot control and maybe join them on to Afghanistan. I don't see that happening, though, governments and nations do not just give up territory, no matter how troublesome it is.

Of course, this is only one necessary condition for a stable Afghanistan. There are many more.

[TheMercenary]

With the right troops and forces the area could be severely hampered in their ability to move freely into Afghanistan. But the Russians and British tried it as well without much success. Now the president of Afghanistan says he wants to bring the Taliban into the negotiation process, which I think will only give them a foot back in the door for an eventual take over. Until then I guess we just get to continue to rot there as we try to convince ourselves and the rest of the world we are trying to do the right thing. Who knows.

[TheMercenary]

WASHINGTON – New steps are urgently needed to broaden and accelerate work to keep
nuclear weapons and the materials needed to make them out of terrorist hands, according
to Securing the Bomb, 2007, a report released today.
“With al-Qaeda’s central command reconstituting in the mountains of Pakistan, we
urgently need a stepped-up global campaign to secure every nuclear weapon and every
significant cache of potential nuclear bomb material worldwide to stringent standards,”
said Dr. Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s Managing the Atom Project, the report’s
author. “We need to make sure these stocks are locked down before thieves and terrorists
can get to them – and that they stay that way for the long haul.”

http://www.nti.org/c_press/release_stb07.pdf

[xoxoxoBruce]

Another warning from Mike Yon.
Some excerpts

While Russia takes American money and gains influence over our Afghan efforts, we will continue to spend lives and tens of billions of dollars per year on Afghanistan in an attempt to civilize what amounts to Jurassic Park.
~~~~~~
The sum of many factors leaves me with a bad feeling about all this. The Iraq war, even during the worst times, never seemed like such a bog. Yet there is something about our commitment in Afghanistan that feels wrong, as if a bear trap is hidden under the sand.
~~~~~~~
Predicting the trajectory of a war is fraught with peril, like predicting next season’s hurricanes. Anything can happen, and often what changes the course of a war has little or nothing to do with the war. For instance, a failing global economy, or supervention of some chain of events perhaps still unimagined could cause the Af-Pak war to become less relevant. Caveats behind us, it seems that 2009 will see the sharpest fighting so far. That much has been clear for some time, and 2009 is now within our headlights. We can already resolve from the fog much of what is likely coming this year. Imagining what is beyond the headlights, my guess is that 2010 might bring the sharpest fighting of the entire war. My guess is that 2010-11 will likely be crucial years in this process, and that many allies will be making decisions during those years whether to stick it out or to punch out. By the fall of 2010, we should be able to resolve whether our renewed efforts under President Obama are working or failing.

[TheMercenary]

Yon rocks.

[tw]

Urbane Guerrilla repeatedly praised Thomas Barnett's book. Ironically Barnett preaches concept that were contrary to the neocon agenda. Found in Barnett's books are concepts similar to George Sr's new world order. A concept that neocons feared as if the UN would conquer and occupy America (a worst case fear expressed by neocons such as the Michigan Militia). Also expressed are William Edwards Deming's concepts of 14 points and seven deadly sins. Concepts of quality that define leadership and "85% of all problems are directly traceable to ..."

In his new book he delivers “the seven deadly sins of Bush-Cheney” (lust, greed, pride, etc.), as well as a “12-step recovery program for American grand strategy

The need for Phase Four planning that George Jr's administration so ridiculed (see A Quite Transformation).

"Stabilization and reconstruction missions must become a core competency of both the Departments of Defense and State. The military services need to reshape and rebalance their forces to provide a stabilization and reconstruction capability."

To be introduced to and appreciate Barnett and his book "The Pentagon’s New Map", see the NY Times of 10 Feb 2009 entitled U.S. as Parent to Countries in Their Teens .

Mr. Barnett suggests … “we’re playing against ‘younger’ versions of ourselves in many instances.” He counsels a kind of parental Zen patience.

which obviously contradicts UG’s solution by aggression. Barnett is not easy to read. His concepts are challenging. However

it is hard to disagree with his nonfoxy observation that “the world desperately wants America back.”

We did not do this in Afghanistan. The consequences are now called “the Long War”. Should you think Iraq was difficult, well, welcome to Afghanistan. Gen Shinseki accurately noted how many troops were necessary for victory in Iraq - a number rejected by an administration without respect for the military – a number based upon the number of civilians – 25 million. And that in a nation with geography ideal for the American military.

Afghanistan is a nation of 24 million, and now with a decidedly negative opinion of Americans. We did not do the phase four planning as Barnett defined. So now we must refight the war all over again AND overcome the negative impression created by no phase four planning. The majority clearly no longer trust Americans - as demonstrated in polls limited mostly to the big cities where support should be strongest.

We did exactly what Barnett and fundamental military doctrine both say do not do. As most everyone who must deal with this nut says (Petraeus, Holbrook, Odiero, etc), if you thought Iraq was tough, wait till you see what we have created in Afghanistan. A problem made worse by trying to force democracy on them rather than using ‘Zen’.

[Aliantha]

The west has been trying to 'civilize' Afghanistan for hundreds of years.

It's just not going to happen in the way that some would want.

[TheMercenary]

Well done Dems, just what we need to instill confidence in our new leadership!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...,1099409.story

[classicman]

I'm not sure what you mean Merc.

[tw]

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...,1099409.story

Article demonstrates how badly America (NATO) has been losing the war in Afghanistan. American aircraft are at excessive risk if based in Afghanistan. The Predator can be based only in the remaining air base in Central Asia or must be based in Pakistan. Because America has so harmed relations with most every nation, even that last Central Asian air base will be closed. So where does the Predator fly from. Pakistan. Afghanistan is so reconquered by the Taliban - is now so dangerous everywhere - that Predator cannot be based there.

Every so often, someone will naively suggest that Afghanistan is not that bad. No. It is worse. Since our leaders had near zero military knowledge, the Taliban have retaken most of Afghanistan. Everywhere in Afghanistan is too dangerous to base Predator. Central Asian nations, all once very friendly to America, will no longer let America have bases. Eight years of extremist American leadership destroying relations with everyone.

Even during Nam, America never so soured relations with every American ally. History lessons from the last eight years on what not to do.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by tw

Because America has so harmed relations with most every nation, even that last Central Asian air base will be closed.

The Russian promises of debt relief and billions of dollars in aid to Kyrgyzstan probably had more to do with the closing of the Manas Air Base.

[tw]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

The Russian promises of debt relief and billions of dollars in aid to Kyrgyzstan probably had more to do with the closing of the Manas Air Base.

Why have relations with Russia been so soured these past eight years. Unilaterally terminating treaties, high handed political treatment, and repeated gaffs by George Jr's administration about USSR and cold war attitudes all made Russia friendlier?

[classicman]

C'mon Bruce - don't let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by tw

Why have relations with Russia been so soured these past eight years.

Um, cuz they're Russians??

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

Um, cuz they're Russians??

Why not just call them nigers. That is what you wanted to say. That was the wacko extremist position. Those same people in George Sr's administration (ie Cheney) absolutely refused to believe the Cold War was over. Why do you parrot their same hate?

They are Soviets. Therefore they will always be enemies? People who also describes some American as nigers. Its just not politically correct to post what you really mean?